KSE-100 Investment Strategy Report


 

At present, the PSX is enjoying a buying spree which comes on the back of heightened buying from both local and international investors. “Even with a notable 45% return during CY23TD, the KSE-100 index remains significantly undervalued across various valuation perspectives.

  • Investors are relatively neutral on the Pakistani market at the moment, indicating that they expect earnings will grow in line with historical growth rates.
  • The market is trading close to its 3-year average PE ratio of 5.9x.

KSE-100 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

MONTHLY TIME FRAME:




Bollinger Band: 30327-45674-61022

MOVING AVERAGES: MA10=50310, MA20=45674, MA50=43718, MA100=41815, MA200=29271

Fib Retracement= 60317-56125-52737-49355-40349
                                0.23     0.38    0.50     0.618   0.78

Trend Line Resistance= 67200

Trend Line Support= 55000

Indicators= Bullish, Highly Oversold


NOTE

Scenario 1:

IF kse100 gives a closing above 67500 than it can add another 10 to 12 thousand points on index. Closing above 67500 would target 79000-80,000.

Scenario 2:

Another scenario would be KSE-100 rejects from channel top 67000 and then retrace towards channel bottom 55000. Note near channel bottom (55000) fib retracement 0.38 (56125) also present. Then after retracement kse100 become range bound between 67000 to 55000.

Scenario 3:

kse-100 will break 67000 and continue its upward or bullish trend till 80,000.


WEEKLY TIME FRAME



BOLLINGER BAND: 39464-54177-68890

Moving Averages:

MA10=60748, MA20=54177, MA30=51134, MA50=47107, MA100=44804, MA200=43617

Fib Retracement: 61760- 58482- 55833- 53183- 49411
                                0.23     0.38     0.50      0.68     0.78

Indicators: Sell Signal

NOTE:

Kse100 took support from weekly MA10: 59392 and around fib retracement 0.38: 58482.

Scenario 1:

Kse100 retest its recent high 67000.

Scenario 2:

Kse-100 will cross its recent high of 67000 can continue its upward trend.

Scenario 3:

KSE-100 will give a closing below fib retracement 0.23:61700 and also below weekly MA10:60748 and then it will continue its downward trend towards 55000.

DAILY



Bollinger Band: 59986-63887-67789

Moving Averages: EMA10:63735, EMA20:63105, EMA50: 59903, EMA100: 55483, EMA200: 49933

NOTE:

Scenario 1:

Closing below 63000 can target 57866.

Scenario 2:

Closing above 65300 can target 67000 (Double top).

Scenario 3:

Closing above 65300 can also target 71300.





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